Nov 23, 2021

  • Marking SchlabachESPN Senior Writer

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    • Senior college football writer
    • Author of seven books on higher football
    • Graduate of the University of Georgia

There'southward simply one week of the regular season remaining earlier Title Week, merely there's still plenty left at stake in college football.

Nine conference championship slots will be determined in games this week, including winner-accept-all contests in the Large Ten Due east (Ohio State at Michigan), Conference USA Due east (Western Kentucky at Marshall) and MAC East (Miami, Ohio at Kent State).

And there volition likewise be plenty on the line besides bragging rights in the Iron Bowl, Egg Bowl, Apple tree Cup and Clamor.

With another big coaching change and a plethora of rivalry games coming this week, information technology'due south a great time for another batch of overreactions.

Michigan has a gamble against Ohio State

"The Game" has become so lopsided in the Buckeyes' favor for the past two decades, I'grand non even certain it's the all-time rivalry in higher football anymore. Some other Ohio State victory over Michigan seems inevitable, especially with the way the Buckeyes are rolling on offense right now.

There'southward no question the Wolverines are a better football game team this flavour. Under new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, Michigan ranks seventh in the FBS in scoring defense (xvi.3 points) and 10th in total defence force (306.7 yards). They're concrete and disciplined on offense and rank second in the Big 10 in rushing (218.4 yards) and scoring (36.ix points).

After struggling on the route in the past, Michigan won at Wisconsin, Nebraska, Penn State and Maryland. The but blotch was a 37-33 defeat at Michigan Country on Oct. thirty.

None of that matters if Michigan tin't beat out Ohio Land, correct?

Well, non exactly. In that location aren't many teams in the FBS that are probably capable of beating the surging Buckeyes right now. Ohio State has owned "That Team Upwards North," winning viii direct, the longest in the history of the series, and 15 of the past sixteen games. Jim Harbaugh is 0-v against the Buckeyes, with his teams losing by an average of 19 points. In the past 2 games alone, in 2018 and 2019 (final season'due south game was canceled because of COVID-19), the Buckeyes scored 118 points and piled up one,144 yards of offense. It hasn't been pretty.

Saturday's game at the Big Firm volition be the get-go fourth dimension both teams volition be ranked in the superlative five since 2016, when Ohio State won 30-27 in double overtime. The winner claims the East Division title and will play in the Dec. 4 Big Ten championship game. A win in Indianapolis probably secures a spot in the College Football Playoff -- for either team.

"Both teams have a lot on the line," Harbaugh told reporters Mon. "It's a truthful playoff in that sense. In the College Football Playoff world, this is the get-go of the playoffs. The team that wins volition advance, and the team that doesn't won't."

As much as Michigan has improved, information technology's prophylactic to assume that the Buckeyes will once once again be the team advancing.

Cincinnati is going to get jobbed over again

Oregon lost for the second time this flavor on Sat, 38-vii on the road at Utah, which knocked the Ducks and the Pac-12 out of the playoff once again. The Ducks were No. iii in the option commission's rankings last week, so one can guess that Ohio State will move upward to at least No. 3 (and maybe ahead of Alabama to No. 2) and the Bearcats will slide upward a spot to No. 4.

Or maybe not.

The Bearcats, who are attempting to become the first team from a Grouping of five conference to crash the playoff, turned in 1 of their improve performances of the season Sat, taking down SMU 48-14 at domicile.

But information technology wouldn't exist a big surprise if the committee bumped Michigan ahead of Cincinnati for at least a week, later on the Wolverines manhandled Maryland 59-18 on the route. Michigan doesn't currently have a victory that tin trump Cincinnati's road win over Notre Matriarch, but its strength of schedule is decidedly better than the Bearcats'.

That doesn't mean the Bearcats won't move into the tiptop four if they defeat East Carolina on the road Fri (3:thirty p.one thousand. ET, ABC & ESPN App) and Houston in the AAC championship. In fact, ESPN'southward Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Cincinnati a 65% chance to make the playoff, behind only Georgia (98%) and Alabama (66%).

Your school is going to hire a bad coach

The regular season isn't even over withal, and already in that location are head-coaching vacancies at arguably three of the top fifteen programs in the country: Florida, LSU and USC. Given their locations, traditions, budgets and recruiting bases, in that location's no reason those teams shouldn't be competing for conference and national titles on a regular basis.

Those programs are going to attract a puddle of more than-than-capable candidates, but Texas A&M'south Jimbo Fisher, Penn State's James Franklin and Michigan Country'southward Mel Tucker probably won't be among them. The Aggies have already locked up Fisher to a four-year extension that will pay him roughly $ninety million over the next 10 years. The Spartans are reportedly working on a 10-year, $95 meg deal for Tucker, and Franklin is purportedly gear up to hold to a new contract with the Nittany Lions, which could be approved and announced as early on every bit Tuesday.

Fourteen FBS programs take fabricated coaching changes since the start of the 2021 flavour, and but iv have been filled. In that location could be more openings in the coming days with additional firings and retirements. It is expected to exist one of the more volatile coaching carousels in recent history.

"I call back the landscape across college football is what it is," Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Monday. "The stakes have gotten higher. The pay has gotten college, and with that, comes expectations. It's a different landscape now than information technology was fifty-fifty four or five years ago in terms of portal, recruiting, number of initials. Everything changes so fast. It makes it tougher. It's a much tougher job. I retrieve yous've seen a lot of people in our level go to the next level, because it has a little less strain on your family and things."

Then who's left? Plenty of potential candidates, including Cincinnati'southward Luke Fickell, Baylor's Dave Aranda, Louisiana's Billy Napier, Iowa State's Matt Campbell and Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin, for starters. A school might have to wait for Fickell if the Bearcats are in the playoff, but why wouldn't information technology hold out for the hottest coaching article in the FBS?

And then while USC fans might have hoped for Fickell, they might have to settle for Aranda, who has worked wonders in his second season with the Bears.

And while Florida fans might have their sights gear up on onetime Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, they might end upwardly with Napier, who worked under Clemson's Dabo Swinney and Alabama'due south Nick Saban.

LSU might have been willing to throw $100 million or more at Fisher -- how much would it really take? -- just Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien might be a more plausible candidate.

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Bama'southward Immature explodes in record-setting win over Hogs

No. ii Alabama's Bryce Young throws for a school-record 561 yards (2nd near in SEC history) and 5 touchdowns to defeat relentless No. 21 Arkansas, 42-35.

Georgia will crush Alabama

The SEC title game matchup nosotros've been anticipating for months is finally set up: No. i Georgia will play No. 2 Alabama at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. four.

It will be the 3rd meeting betwixt the schools in the SEC title game; the Crimson Tide won the first 2 games by a combined 11 points. In 2012, the Bulldogs' upset efforts ended with the clock running out at Alabama's 5-yard line in a 32-28 loss. Six years afterwards, quarterback Jalen Hurts came off the bench to lead the Tide back from a 2-touchdown arrears in the second half. Georgia's botched fake punt with 3:04 left helped gear up Hurts' winning 15-yard run in a 35-28 victory.

That win came a twelvemonth subsequently the teams met in the CFP National Championship subsequently the 2017 flavour, also played in Atlanta, and the Tide won that one, too. Freshman Tua Tagovailoa started the 2nd half and threw 3 touchdowns, including a 41-yarder to DeVonta Smith in overtime for a 26-23 win.

This flavor, Georgia has looked similar the well-nigh dominant squad in the state, finishing viii-0 in the SEC for the showtime time in school history. The Bulldogs can finish unbeaten in the regular flavor for the first time since 1982 past winning at rival Georgia Tech on Sat (noon ET, ABC and ESPN App).

Meanwhile, Alabama has looked surprisingly vulnerable at times. The Tide barely beat Florida by ii on the road (the Bulldogs blasted the Gators by 27), lost at Texas A&Thou past three on Oct. ix and and so needed tardily stands to defeat both struggling LSU and Arkansas at dwelling (the Bulldogs shut out the Hogs 37-0). At various times, Alabama's offensive line has struggled and its defense has been shockingly susceptible to large plays.

Still, if the Crimson Tide win at Auburn in Sabbatum's Atomic number 26 Basin, they'll have more than at pale when they play the Bulldogs a week later. Unless Alabama knocks off Georgia again, it won't be assured of getting to the CFP. A two-loss squad has never made the playoff, and it'south difficult to imagine the Tide being the commencement, especially without winning a conference championship, regardless of how high they might be in the selection commission'due south rankings on Tuesday night.

Make no mistake: Alabama will more than probable exist at its best in Atlanta, and it will be another back-and-forth contest between Saban and Smart, his quondam defensive coordinator. Tide receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie volition test Georgia's secondary, and Bryce Immature'southward scrambling ability will help go along the offense on the field.

Every bit skilful as Georgia has looked this flavor, finally beating Alabama has been the elephant-sized hurdle staring the Bulldogs in the face up since early on September. Knocking the Tide out of the playoff might be Georgia's clearest path to catastrophe a 41-year drought without a national title.

"I don't have whatsoever dubiousness that nosotros can play with Alabama, we've done it three times," Smart told ESPN in the preseason. "We're merely equally good as them, and we've gone toe-to-toe with them."

The wait is almost over to find out if the Bulldogs can finally become it done.